ARCHIVES: May, 2004
 
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2003 Archive

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  The Agenda:

Testing the Premise: Are Gays a Threat to Our Children?

What the "Dutch Study" Really Says About Gay Couples

Federal Hate Crime Statistics: Why The Numbers Don't Add Up

Refuting Christianity Today

 
  Favorites:

Still Life At Sunset

Anderson Cooper and Scooter

Wandering, Wondering

The Aperture of Memory

Easter's Birthday

The First Time I Cussed

 

  Photo Essays:

The Anasazi Ruins of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico

Monsoons of 2004

Miracle Mile

Now Showing / Reflection on Hayden, Arizona

 

       

When Harry Met Stella
Saturday, May 22, 2004

Differences in communication styles between a Midwesterner (me) and a Southerner (Chris) often result in profoundly different interpretations of the same conversation. Take this one we had over breakfast this morning:

What Was Said

 

What Chris Was Thinking

Chris: "Thank you for getting up early with me this morning."

 

That was really nice of him. He usually sleeps in. He wanted to get up to spend time with me.

     

Me: "No problem. I was going to get up and do some work anyway."

 

What the... he had other things he'd rather do!

     

Chris: (slow burn)

 

Jerk!...

Okay Midwesterners, let's replay that conversation again, and this time you can join in with me and sing along with what went on in my head.

What Was Said

 

What I Was Thinking

Chris: "Thank you for getting up with me this morning."

 

Chris thinks he's responsible for my getting up early this morning, and feels guilty about it."

     

Me: "No problem. I was going to get up and do some work anyway."

 

That should set his mind at ease.

     

Chris: (slow burn)

 

Now what?...

It comes down to this difference in a nutshell: where Southerners are grandiose and effusive, Midwesterners are notoriously reticent and modest. We are exceptionally uncomfortable with arduous expressions of exuberance. Take this simple dialog for example:

     Chris: How do these jeans look on me?
     Jim: Fine.

It turns out that "fine" is not an acceptable answer. And get this: neither is "not too bad".

You see, back in Ohio where I learned all about manners and propriety if I had a great meal at a new restaurant and someone asked me how it was, I'd exclaim "not too bad" and everyone would understand how great it was. If they asked me how I did on an exam and I said that I did "okay", they would know I probably aced it. The standard answer to "How was the flight?" was "Could be worse."

What more do you want? Things can always get worse. Be thankful for what you have.

Midwesterners are uncomfortable with praise. There's a feeling of wealth and excess that goes along with it, values which Midwesterners frown upon. Modesty is a highly prized virtue and everyone is taught at an early age to cultivate it and protect it at all costs. When I hear earnest complements, I get very uncomfortable. I don't trust the complimentor because it violates my innate sense of modesty. I naturally assume that the person praising me instinctively understands the problem, as any true Midwesterner would. And if he understands the problem and continues to praise me, then my next assumption would naturally be that he wants to sell me something.

After all, we all know that only salespeople regularly issue unwarranted compliments for reasons which are not necessarily in our best interests.

That modesty is so engrained among Midwesterners that we are extremely solicitous for other people's sense of modesty. For me, that often translates into a false sense of guilt for something rather innocuous that I might see as an undeserved burden that someone has undertaken. People do things for me not because I deserve it, but because I am a burden on them. When someone does something for me, I tend to feel self-centered. And if I do something for someone else, I am aware of their own discomfort or at least I interpret their response in that assumption.

That's why proper manners in the Midwest call for the person doing the good deed to be solicitous of the feelings of the person on the receiving end of the deed. The onus is on the doer to alleviate the guilty feelings of the person benefiting from good deed. Consequently, we tend to thank people more for the relief of a debt with the idea that the giver is the debtor and not as a matter of course for receiving something, which of course, we don't deserve in the first place. And proper manners call for the person receiving the thanks to always, always demur. Anything else is terribly impolite, and maybe even be seen as gloating, like we're better than them. Which, we're not. And don't you forget it.

If you're confused, rent the movie Fargo. Then maybe you'll understand.

I hope you Southerners can now understand why we Midwesterners sometimes appear cold and reserved. I suppose we must seem to be disapproving of everything and everyone around us. We don't mean it. Honestly. "Not bad" is, in fact, quite good. "Fine" is great. "Could be worse" is wonderful. You would probably say "fabulous!", "glorious!" or "amazing!" or something equally extravagant, complete with an explanation point!

But, I won't believe a word of it.

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Goodnight, Felix
Thursday, May 20, 2004

Tony Randall was not gay. He was metrosexual before metrosexuals were cool before metrosexuals even had a name.

How many cool 84-year-old metrosexuals do you know? How many are cool enough to be talked into being covered in mud on the David Letterman Show to poke fun of his prim and proper (not gay) image? Or cool enough to commandeer a tour bus full of senior citizens from the Late Show and take it to New Jersey?


AP

He was best known for his role as Felix Ungar, the fastidious, stuffy, not quite gay half of “The Odd Couple” (who were not really gay and definitely not married) with his lifelong, perfectly platonic friend and cohort Jack Klugman, who played the sloppy sports writer Oscar Madison (not even metrosexual). That series ran from 1970 to 1975.

After that, he had his own television series called “The Tony Randall Show”, in which he played a pompous, not terribly gay Philadelphia judge. Then came a very brief stint on another series called “Love, Sidney”, in which he played a single, middle-aged commercial artist (hello?). He got his start playing fussy characters in several Doris Day / Rock Hudson (hmmm…) movies.

He was passionate about live theater in a very flamboyant but not too gay sort of way, founding the National Actor’s Theater in 1991 using $1 million of his own money. He was starring in a perfectly straight revival of “Right You Are” when he became ill in December and was checked into the NYU Medical Center for triple bypass surgery. He remained there until he passed away in his sleep Monday night at age 84.


AP

At nineteen, he married his college sweetheart, Florence, and they remained married until her death some fifty-four years later. He then married Heather Harlan, who was some fifty years his junior, and he became a father for the first time at age 77, and again at age 79.

How many cool 77-year-old metrosexuals do you know who are up for starting a family at that age?

Good night, Felix. Sleep well. You deserve it.

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Changing the World, One Fedayeen at a Time
Monday, May 17, 2004

It occurred to me as I was browsing the dusty corners of Tucson's finest used book store, that perhaps the single greatest problem that we Americans are experiencing among our newfound Arab friends is rooted in our poor communication skills. We keep hearing about the lack of Arabic speakers in the U.S. armed forces and intelligence agencies in Iraq. I propose that we should reprint these handy little phrase books and distribute them to the troops. I really do believe that, little by little, one Iraqi at a time, we can begin to bridge the gap that stands between us and the kindly Arab on the street, and begin on a lifelong journey of friendship and mutually beneficial exchange of ideas and commerce.

After all, all we really want to do is just get along, don't you agree?

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Heads Up!
Monday, May 17, 2004

Hey Panchesco! The gig is almost up!

You might want to consider revising the interrogation policies of your photo ministry, now that Congress is on the verge of passing a law against “up-skirt” photos that finally brings the U.S. into compliance with the Geneva Conventions.

I don’t want to come home one evening and find you featured on Sixty Minutes II.

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The Aperture of Memory, Revisited
Wednesday, May 12, 2004

So, this is the “Announcement to the World” that Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has been hiding behind ever since this scandal broke. This tiny five-line paragraph is what he considers to be sufficient disclosure that something has gone terribly, terribly wrong at Abu Gharib prison. It really doesn’t say much.  Not much at all.

But then the pictures came out and the world came to understand what was going on. The pictures changed everything. These pictures are indelible, unshakable images that reverberates in the hearts and guts of everyone who sees them.

You can describe what you see with words, but words are merely intermediaries. They are perfunctory couriers of facts and opinions, filtered by the perception of the speaker, and filtered again by the perception of the listener. But pictures require no description – they just are.

Sen. Ted Kennedy remarked that these pictures threaten to replace the Statue of Liberty as the enduring symbol of America in the eyes of the world. I’m afraid that at least right now, he’s right. Certainly, Pete Howe, former director of photography for Life magazine, is correct in saying, “the iconic images coming out of this war may be the amateur photographs of Iraqi prisoners.”

And Keith W. Jenkins, photo editor of the Washington Post Magazine, further elaborated on the problem, saying that “with the technology now, the amateur photographer is as capable as a professional journalist and is operating with the same tools: Digital camera, laptop and an Internet connection… The embedded process was supposed to give government a better handle on what journalists were doing, but now you have this whole rogue operation of civilians with digital cameras who have access to things the media don’t.”

The tactic of embedding journalists was supposed to prevent the damaging photos of the messier aspects of war from reaching the public, but nobody apparently stopped to consider the proliferation of the soldiers’ personal digital cameras and ready access to CD-ROM burners and the Internet.


CNN 

During the congressional hearings, Secretary Rumsfeld decried the release of these photos. He decried the terrible smear on America’s reputation caused by their release. He described how the pictures made him feel sick to his stomach. Unfortunately it appeared that he regrets the pictures more than the actual facts of the abuse. He reserved his most graphic words of disgust and shock for the pictures.

He expressed particular exasperation at how quickly the photographs proliferated, exclaiming, “We're functioning… in the Information Age, where people are running around with digital cameras and taking these unbelievable photographs and then passing them off, against the law, to the media, to our surprise."

He offered another warning: "There are a lot more photographs and videos that exist. If these are released to the public, obviously it is going to make matters worse... I looked at them last night and they are hard to believe.”

I’m sorry he’s surprised. Welcome to the new world of shock and awe.

The best way to keep the pictures out of the newspapers and off of the television screens is to simply make sure the abuses don’t occur in the first place. It never ceases to amaze me when this extraordinarily simple course of logic escapes our leaders.

□■□■□

 

 Reuters / New Yorker

“In the images of celebrating Iraqis, we have also seen the ageless appeal of human freedom. Decades of lies and intimidation could not make the Iraqi people love their oppressors or desire their own enslavement. Men and women in every culture need liberty like they need food and water and air. Everywhere that freedom arrives, humanity rejoices; and everywhere that freedom stirs, let tyrants fear” – President George Bush, “Mission Accomplished” speech, May 1, 2003.
 


 Reuters / New Yorker

“Saddam Hussein's monuments have been removed and not only his statues. The true monuments of his rule and his character – the torture chambers, and the rape rooms, and the prison cells for innocent children – are closed.” – President George Bush, address to the U.N. General Assembly, September 23, 2003.
 


AP / New Yorker

 “No one can argue that the Iraqi people would be better off with the thugs and murderers back in the palaces. Who would prefer that Saddam's torture chambers still be open?” – President George Bush, March 19, 2004.
 


 Reuters/New Yorker

“As we have done before, America is fighting on the side of liberty -- liberty in Iraq, and liberty in the Middle East. This objective serves the interests of that region, of the United States and of all freedom-loving countries. As the greater Middle East increasingly becomes a place where freedom flourishes, the lives of millions in that region will be bettered, and the American people and the entire world will be more secure.” – President George Bush, April 10, 2004.


 AP

“A free Iraq is vital because 25 million Iraqis have as much right to live in freedom as we do. A free Iraq will stand as an example to reformers across the Middle East. A free Iraq will show that America is on the side of Muslims who wish to live in peace, as we have already shown in Kuwait and Kosovo, Bosnia and Afghanistan. A free Iraq will confirm to a watching world that America's word, once given, can be relied upon, even in the toughest times.” – President George Bush, April 13, 2004.
 


 Washington Post

“Life for the Iraqi people is a world away from the cruelty and corruption of Saddam's regime. At the most basic level of justice, people are no longer disappearing into political prisons, torture chambers, and mass graves – because the former dictator is in prison, himself. And their daily life is improving.” – President George Bush, Radio Address, May 1, 2004.
 


 Reuters

“The world is better off without Saddam Hussein in power. Because we acted, torture chambers are closed, rape rooms no longer exist." – George Bush, campaign stop in Niles, Michigan, May 4, 2004.
 


 AFP / New Yorker

“These events occurred on my watch. As secretary of defense, I am accountable for them and I take full responsibility”. – Donald Rumsfeld, Senate Armed Services Committee testimony, May 7, 2004.
 


 New Yorker

“The cause of freedom is in good hands” – President George Bush, campaign stop in Prairie du Chien, Wisconsin, May 9, 2004
 


 CBS

“I think Donald Rumsfeld is the best secretary of defense the United States has ever had… People ought to let him do his job.” – Vice President Dick Cheney, May 9, 2004.
 


 CBS 60 Minutes II

“Mr. Secretary, thank you for your hospitality, and thank you for your leadership. You are courageously leading our nation in the war against terror. You are doing a superb job. You are a strong secretary of defense. And our nation owes you a debt of gratitude.” – President George Bush, May 10, 2004.
 


 Washington Post

“Donald Rumsfeld has ‘accepted responsibility’ – an action that apparently does not mean paying any price at all.” – Paul Krugman, New York Times columnist, May 11, 2004.
 


 Washington Post

“We now have the new symbol of this war. It is no longer the picture of Saddam's statue tipping over - it's a girl with an Iraqi on a leash," – Morley Safer, 60 Minutes correspondent, May 10, 2004.
 


 New Yorker

“Failure in leadership, sir, from the brigade commander on down, lack of discipline, no training whatsoever and no supervision” – Maj. Gen. Antonio M. Taguba, Army Investigator of Iraqi prisoner abuse, in answer to Sen. John Warner’s question on what went wrong, Senate Armed Services Committee testimony, May 11, 2004.

 


 Washington Post

“The coalition is winning in Iraq, and what matters is determination, will and steadfast leadership from the United States, President Bush said here today.” Department of Defense Website, May 11, 2004.
 

□■□■□


Reuters

I said it before, and today's events make it worth repeating: God help the next American to fall into the hands of an insurgent. God help the next American POW to fall into the hands of our next foreign enemy. God damn our administration for letting this go on despite the investigation that was completed last February, and for ignoring reports from as early as last summer. They knew.

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The Day We Made a Billion Enemies
Wednesday, May 5, 2004

I have no intention of turning this thing into a politically-motivated blog. I really wanted to write something amusing and light-hearted about Cinco de Mayo or something, but I read this copy of the Defense Department’s investigation of Iraqi prison torture that NPR has obtained and posted on its website. It requires Adobe Acrobat to read, but read it and be shocked.

□■□■□


AFP

The sense of betrayal is palpable.

The sense of shame is burdensome.

The sense of outrage is righteous.

The last good argument for going into Iraq, the one remaining argument that could still be counted on to silence the critics – aren’t the Iraqis better off without Saddam? – is completely torn to shreds.

Some will argue that these are the actions of a few rogue soldiers, but so far it doesn’t appear that way. Not with all of the finger-pointing taking place among the higher-ups. That kind of passing-the-blame doesn’t happen when the real story is that a bunch of low level rogues running amok. If that were all there was to it, they would just punish the guilty and move on. Higher-ups point fingers at each other in order to deflect criticism levied against them. At least that’s what the dishonorable ones do.

Besides, arguing that this is some sort of an anomaly (really now, we’re not quite as bad as the evil dictator we replaced) is humiliating. Saying, “yeah, we’re bad, but not as bad as Saddam” isn’t the kind of expression that makes the heart well up with pride. To the contrary, it rings false. These photos say to the world that we are as bad as Saddam. For me, it is a moment of gut-wrenching, personal shame.

 

 Reuters / New Yorker

There – I’ve said it. I am ashamed to be an American.

I didn’t always feel this way. In fact, I didn’t feel this way at all until just last weekend. Whatever horrible news we heard from Iraq, there was one thing I knew was true: we were much better, much more civilized, much more magnanimous in spirit and animated by a sense of fair play and the rule of law than the brutal dictatorship we replaced. With all of the miserable failures we’ve encountered along the way, I always knew one thing: our commitment to justice and democratic values was the source of our strength and pride.

   

AP

But I've been shown to be horribly wrong, and my stomach is shaking with rage.

In the immediate aftermath of September 11, we asked ourselves over and over, “why do they hate us?” We saw the celebrations in the streets of Gaza City and could not understand what we could have done to deserve such vilification. But if we had any questions then about why they hated us so, we have removed all doubts now. Each and every Arab in the Middle East now hates us, and they have every right to do so. Who can blame them? We have given them an excellent reason to hate us.

We have been outraged to see our own POW soldiers and captives on television, experiencing treatment that is mild compared to what we now see our own soldiers doing to Iraqis. Can you imagine the apoplectic fury Americans would have directed to anyone who would have treated our men and women the same way? Can you imagine the rage of the President and Congress if these were American men and women and not Iraqis? Can you imagine how much we would hate whoever did this to our men and women? Stop and think about it. It's important that you do. It's important to think about how you would react because that is how they are reacting right now. 

 

AP

Right now, these pictures are being shown to Yemeni teenagers, and more fighters are being recruited for the cause. Right now, these pictures are silencing Arab moderates who supported a friendly course with the west. Right now, these pictures are vindicating those who argue that America is the Great Satan. Right now, they have the truth on their side, and we can't deny it.

They're not crazy or mislead or uneducated anymore. They are not a bunch of zealots burning with a hatred for Israel or love of Islam anymore. These things may still be true, but everything has now been leveled to the same values that we too understand and hold dear: We've committed shameful and outrageous atrocities against their husbands, wives, sons and daughters.

Read the report. This isn't a case of the Liberal Media exaggerating a minor incident in order to embarrass our president. It came from one of our own generals.

 


AP / New Yorker

God help the next American to fall into the hands of an insurgent. God help the next American POW to fall into the hands of our next foreign enemy. God damn our administration for letting this go on despite the investigation that was completed last February, and for ignoring reports from as early as last summer. They knew.

They knew in February, although Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld claims to have not read the full report. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff claims to have not read it until last weekend even though CBS News knew about it two weeks ago and held the story on the Pentagon's request so as to not inflame the situation in Fallujah. But Congress was kept in the dark, and even President Bush claims to have first heard about it from CBS's Sixty Minutes II last Thursday. If that were true and I were president, I'd either have Rumsfeld's resignation on my desk or my letter firing him on his. But I don't see any such move on Bush's part.

Nobody in the upper echelons of the Pentagon appeared to show sufficient concern about the situation until it became public. Nobody got around to reading the report, even though everyone knew about it. It looks like it is the publicity they are ashamed of, not the torture and and violations of International Law at the heart of it.


Reuters / New Yorker

So we see Donald Rumsfeld in his news conference quibbling over the term "torture", preferring to call it abuse instead. We see him refusing to apologize. We see him dissembling on whether he saw the pictures or not or when he may have seen them. We see him defending the very long time this information sat around waiting for a response. We see him making excuses for not informing Congress or anyone else, choosing to rely on an obscure press release in January. We see him trying to manage the situation. We watch him spin.

Sen. John McCain (R-Az.) responded, "He announced in a press release that there was an investigation? Is that the way you inform Congress?"

It was this administration's failure to plan for the post-war occupation of Iraq that has led to this situation. It was this administration's failure to provide clear guidance and training in observing the Geneva Conventions and International Law that set the tone for this torture. It was this administration's lack of regard for individual rights and due process that has encouraged an us-verses-them attitude that dehumanizes those who are in our custody. 

Given the cavalier attitude the administration has exhibited, I don't see how they can claim any moral authority to continue to execute the Iraqi reconstruction. Just four days ago, I said I didn't think we could leave Iraq, and if we did our security would be dangerously damaged as the entire world would take it as a sign of weakness. Now, I don't think we have the moral authority to stay.

Prisoners have been tortured, and at least two have died as a direct result. Ten more deaths are under investigation. Altogether some twenty-five prisoners in Iraq and Afghanistan died in custody, and we have no credibility for claiming that we are not responsible.

 


AFP

We are no better than Saddam. We have done the same things he has done. We even used his favorite prison for these atrocities. I won’t accept the argument that Saddam was worse because he did it to many more people than we. That's just saying the methods are okay and we're just going to argue over what numbers are acceptable. Forgive me if I don't feel up to undertaking the macabre exercise of defining how many is too many.

That is un-American. I’ll be damned if I’ll be un-American. I only wish our leadership felt the same way.

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◄ April 2004
► June 2004

       

Quagmire Accomplished
Saturday, May 1, 2004


Larry Downing / Reuters

It was exactly one year ago that our president stood on the deck of the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln and declared the end of combat operations in Iraq. It has been a huge mess ever since then, and I don’t see a way out it.

Let me begin by saying that I thought we had no choice but to go into Iraq, but my line of reasoning was very different from everyone else. I’m not surprised by that – my line of reasoning often runs differently from everyone else, so why should this be different?
 

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AP


AP

I felt that George Bush was making the same mistake that Madeline Albright had made which made the war in Kosovo so inevitable. On the eve of negotiations with Slobodan Milosevic, she made a very public announcement that we would to go to war against him if he didn’t agree to our position regarding Kosovo. When I heard it, I knew immediately that the course for war was set. Milosevic had no choice but intransigence – any other move would have been political suicide for him in the world of Balkan politics. It didn’t matter whether he compromised because he suddenly became a reasonable human being or because he was afraid of the repercussions. Any compromise in the face of threats like that would have looked like capitulation, and that would have been the end of his career and possibly his life. For the negotiations to be successful, Milosevic needed to be able to walk away a winner, even if he gave up more than he got. We took away the possibility of a win-win situation by that very public threat before negotiations began. That made war inevitable.


AP

President Bush did exactly the same thing with Saddam Hussein, but added a twist that made it even worse. He introduced demands that were impossible to satisfy. Remember, Bush said that if Saddam got rid of all of his Weapons of Mass Destruction, war could be averted. We insisted that Saddam comply with U.N resolutions and allow the weapons inspectors back in. It now appears in hindsight that Saddam did all of that.

But here is the conundrum: we went to war because we insisted that Saddam prove a negative, which is logically impossible. You can prove that someone has something, but you cannot prove that someone doesn’t have something. You can’t prove a negative. That’s why our system of justice provides for the presumption of innocence and imposes the burden of proving guilt, simply because it is very often impossible to prove innocence. You can prove someone did something; you typically can’t prove that someone didn’t.

President Bush painted Saddam into a corner from which he could not escape. But he painted us into a corner as well.

□■□■□


AP

Our only choice was war.  The only way to avert it would have been for Saddam to leave. As far as Saddam was concerned, this would be committing suicide. His resigning would have been tantamount to the same thing, and Saddam wasn’t about to do that.

His only choice was war. The only way to avert it would have been for us to back down, and our nation’s own security would have been irreparably harmed if we had done that. Our adversaries would have taken the same lesson as they did from Vietnam, Beirut, and Somalia. Osama bin Laden concluded we were a paper tiger because we left Beirut and Mogadishu. More Osamas would have come after us than ever before if we backed down from Iraq. And George Bush wasn’t about to do that.

War was inevitable. George Bush had recklessly tied the Gordian knot. Iraq couldn’t prevent it. America couldn’t prevent it. France and Germany couldn’t prevent it. Neither side could back down.

It was for that reason – and only that reason – that I supported going to war. My feeling was that we were left with no choice, so let’s get on with it. But I was angry at George Bush for putting us into this position. I said at the time to everyone who would listen to me, that the war would be a cakewalk. We’ll march in, and the Iraqi army will crumble within days. I was very confident that combat would be very brief. But I was also convinced that the aftermath would be a disastrous nightmare.

□■□■□

The same administration that derided the Clinton administration for its penchant for “nation-building” offered no plan for building Iraq into a democracy. They went in with no discernable post-war plan for security or governance. They downplayed every difficulty since marching into Baghdad. And they continue to pretend that all is going well, according to plan, that there is nothing to be concerned about, and that things will work out in the end. And most unforgivably, they do all of this without an exit plan.


AP

The elder George Bush insisted during the first Gulf War that there be a clear, definable exit strategy. The junior George Bush and his administration have not even begun to think of one. The result is the present quagmire, from which there is no way out. Not since Vietnam have we been in a situation that we simply cannot get out of.

We can’t cut and run. If we do, Iraq will become the new Afghanistan, a lawless entity in which terrorist groups will flourish. And by the way, because we’ve taken the eye off of the ball in Afghanistan, it is already descending into lawlessness. President Hamid Karzai may hold the title of President of Afghanistan, but he’s effectively just the President of Kabul.

We can’t bring democracy to Iraq. There has to be a home-grown experience with democracy before it can take root, and Iraqis have had no such experience whatsoever. Germany and Japan are often cited as examples of nations which successfully transitioned from dictatorship to democracy, but their experiences are not analogous to Iraq. Both German and Japan had parliamentary democracies that were replaced by dictatorships. While their democracies failed, the people nevertheless had a memory and experience in how to work within democratic institutions, and perhaps more importantly, were able to draw lessons from those failures to prevent it from happening again. Iraqis have no such lessons from history to draw upon.

We can’t even bring stability to Iraq. We weren’t greeted with smiling faces and open arms. The roads were not carpeted with rose petals. In the past year, ordinary Iraqis have long since become too disillusioned with the ongoing violence to entrust their individual security to the Americans. And as long as individual Iraqis can’t feel secure enough to work with Americans, the chasm that exists between them and the military will continue to widen.

□■□■□

I wish I had been blogging during the months leading up to war so I could have set my original predictions in writing. That way I could brag about how I saw all of this coming. But since I didn’t, I’m open to the skeptical admonition that talk is cheap. But on this one-year anniversary of President Bush’s declaring an end to combat operations, it is a good time to reflect on where we’ve been and where we’re headed. So in that vein, I have a few predictions that I’m ready to commit to:

  • I predict that our ongoing problems in Iraq will prevent us from going after real threats anywhere else in the world.

  • I predict that regardless of who’s president next year, our freedoms will continue to be threatened by foreign enemies and our own government alike.

  • I predict that regardless of who’s president next year, we will continue to lose credibility as an impartial peace-maker in the Middle East.

  • I predict that regardless of who’s president next year, we will still have troops in Iraq and the people of Iraq will hold us responsible for everything that happens for years to come.

  • I predict that the longer we stay, the more reasons Iraqis will have to hate us.

  • I predict that the time will come when we will be forced to withdraw from Iraq under conditions that will weaken our prestige. I fear, but won’t predict, that the men and women of our armed forces may wind up as scapegoats, much as the veterans of Vietnam were. I fear, but refuse to predict, that the brave soldiers who volunteer to protect us will end up sharing the blame for everything that goes wrong, and if so, this will be a terrible tragedy all over again. They deserve much better from us, and most especially from our leaders.

  • I predict that when we withdraw, we will be seen as weak, and that our perceived weakness will make us targets for further violence and terrorism, and that our security will be seriously compromised.

  • I predict that after we withdraw, everything that happens in the Middle East for many decades will be laid at our feet.

  • I predict that we will now have a permanent enemy among the world’s Arab and Muslim populations, regardless of the inclination of their leaders.

I know that the world is now more dangerous in unpredictable ways. Colin Powell was right: “You break it, you bought it.” We bought it big time.  Quagmire accomplished.


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